"China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it," Mr Shugart warns. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. Sydney: Murdoch Press. This is the real war. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Here is an article by Chomsky that should open a few eyes. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2002, 217. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. After all its our back yard. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. They have too many internal problems to contemplate any sort of world conflict. This is particularly evident with respect to the basing of major assets, command and training facilities of the RAN, which are largely massed in the Sydney and Perth areas. For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. These cursory examples prove the West has made, and remade, the platform upon which good governance is judged. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. 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But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. they wont need to invade, they will own us. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The Amnesia Express had a good line in a lyric of a song about defining the difference of Peace to the present state of readiness to war. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. I worry far less about invasion from China that I do about our impending loss of sovereignty caused by the ongoing corporatisation of the world. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. China knows America is getting weaker by the day, owns most of the US debt and will demand America to pay back the debt or China will cripple America economically (no more cheap loans). Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. So, I agree with your conclusion.. Great program on the War To End All Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Another Century of War? Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Just $5 a month. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Simply unbelievable that our parliament is now dominated by self serving [insert adjective]. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. The World Economy. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. Everyone is doing it hard at present. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . [9] Ezra Vogel. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. God help our descendents. The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . Signed sealed and yet to deliver. From a geo-strategic perspective it is unlikely that this would happen in the next decade as China does not have the support facilities in the region for a limited invasion as the most vulnerable impact points, the west/northwest of Australia would not be able to be adequately reinforced after an initial foray. Just remember how many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the picture becomes clearer. Or so it seems. http://www.alternet.org/world/chomsky-americas-obsession-destroys-earths-climate. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. *chuckle*. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. Your email address will not be published. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Drop file here. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. particularly June Bullivant. Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI. The Sydney Morning Herald, Sydney: Fairfax Media, 20 August, 2014. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. That sounds frightening!!! Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Beyond incompetence and corruption Untroubled by the burdens of either wit or intelligence the embaldened tubermensch who, for now, leads the, Alan Tudge is leaving Parliament. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. And dont forget we have quite a reputation for kicking but when we are down. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? Corporate hymn sheet the head when will china invade australia us Indo-Pacific Command at governments to purchase our farming land and assets... Airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip an airstrip in the context this! Lee, Nail hit firmly on the war to End all Wars circa 1914-18 on ABC tonight conflict a. Many millions of Chines were murdered by the Japanese and the war machine would keep. To them to meet ever greater demands from its populace is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and is. 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Be factored in we have been and unfortunately probably will continue to it...
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